The 2013 Year in Review and Outlook for 2014

The long, slow housing recovery finally accelerated in 2013 as most major markets across the country recorded home price increases and faster sales paces. Nationally, housing inventories have declined over 35% in the past four years putting more balance in the supply and demand equation. As this year in review indicates, Cordillera Ranch experienced similar upward trends in real estate sales and membership sales. As usual, most of the sales were concentrated in the Spring and early Summer with August through October being slower sales periods. This year the slowdown in September was more than seasonal; the national housing market slowed in September and October as consumer confidence dipped with fears surrounding the government shutdown and debt-ceiling issues. In November, activity picked up with several large home and lot sales.

Real Estate: Recent Sales and Construction Recap
Overall, through the trailing twelve months ended 11/30/13 there were $41.9MM in real estate sales in Cordillera Ranch, including all lot and home sales (excluding new home construction), which represents a 33% increase from the same period in 2012. Lot sales (developer and resale) accounted for $12.9MM of this figure (56 lot sales with disclosed price; another 5 with non-disclosed price) while home sales totaled $29MM in Cordillera Ranch. The highest demand for lot sales was the Clubs Village area, including Summit Pass, Di Lusso Villas and Nicklaus Signature Golf lots; Clubs Village accounted for 41% of lots sales in the last year. Cordillera Ranch Realty agents accounted for 96% of lot sales in 2013. “In 2012 and 2013 the buyers that had the capability of getting back in the market were buying property again. They were planning for the future,” according to Rick Grimes of Cordillera Ranch Realty. “We conservatively managed the release of new lots in the downturn to keep the market as healthy as possible. Now that the activity has picked up, we’ve begun to release new lots in a variety of different sizes, price points and areas within the community. It’s exciting to be able to offer completely new home sites to buyers again.”
The following chart illustrates overall lot sales in the ranch in the last three years.

developer_chart1

While Clubs Village was in demand for lot buyers, home sales were scattered throughout various parts of the ranch. Cordillera Ranch is really a community with at least five different distinct property types or neighborhoods ranging from Clubs Village home sites to Guadalupe River-Front properties to Ranch estate home sites to hilltop View estates and Di Lusso Villas. As a result of this variety and the wide-range in age of properties built from 1998 to 2013 there is always a wide range of price points available. In 2013, home sales ranged from $426k to over $2.9MM with an average price of $935k. The following chart shows the 10-year history of annual home sales average prices and number of homes sold.
The 31 homes sold in the twelve months ended 11/30/13 represent the most home sales in a year over the last 10 years and 63% jump from 2012. Moreover, the chart illustrates the steady increase in average home sales prices in Cordillera Ranch over the past 10 years; the 2013 average price is up 36% from 2004.
developer_chart2   If you’ve driven through Cordillera Ranch recently you’ve probably noticed a lot of new homes under construction. We’ve had 11 new home starts in the 4th quarter of 2013 alone, and there are currently 50 homes under construction in the community. At the bottom of the market in 2009 there were 20 homes under construction in the community. In addition to the 50 homes under construction, there are another 27 in architectural committee design review for a total of 77 homes either under construction or in design. Of the 50 homes currently under construction 17 are in the Clubs Village and the other 33 are scattered around the various neighborhoods in the rest of the community. “As the stock market has increased and confidence has gradually improved, people began to dust off those dreams of a custom home,” remarked Ray Stadler, partner in Stadler Custom Homes, a Preferred Builder at Cordillera Ranch. “We have three homes under construction in Clubs Village right now and the last two spec homes we built and sold were in Clubs Village, including the recent sale of our Winged Foot spec,” says Damon Christofilis, partner in Burdick and Christofilis Homes, a Preferred Builder at Cordillera Ranch. “It seems to be where a lot of buyers are gravitating because it’s the hub of the social activities in the community. We recently moved into Clubs Village from the Ranch area of the community and have really enjoyed being so close to the clubhouse and golf course,” adds Christofilis.

Real Estate Listings: Cordillera Ranch Home Listings Sell Faster than Area Market
The 46 homes on the market in the community represent a healthy ratio of 7% of the overall 650+ homes that are built in the community. Furthermore, the average days on market in Cordillera Ranch are 20% less than homes in the $500k+ price range in Bexar and Kendall counties. Moreover, for homes sold in the past 24 months, the average days on market in Cordillera Ranch was 179 days which was nearly two months shorter average days on market than the past 24 months sales for the same price range in Kendall and Bexar counties (which averaged 231 days on market). With the broad ranges of prices and product types in Cordillera Ranch, it’s best to analyze supply by price segments. As the chart below illustrates Cordillera Ranch average days on market are less than Bexar and Kendall County at every price point except $2.5MM+:
developer_dom_chartSource: MLS
For more information on Cordillera Ranch home and lot sales insight, visit cordilleraranch.com/discover/for-realtors.

Real Estate: New Development Update
As demand has rebounded we’ve worked to keep up by developing new lot product in the various different neighborhoods at Cordillera Ranch. We have four areas in various stages of development: Di Lusso Phase 2, Bear’s Ridge, Springs of Cordillera Ranch and Nicklaus Signature Golf lots. Here is a brief update on those four areas:
Di Lusso Villas Phase 2 (in Clubs Village) streets and utilities are nearing completion and will be wrapped up in first quarter 2014. The first villa in Phase 2 is currently under construction.
Bear’s Ridge (in Clubs Village) construction is underway. This limited offering of the last remaining high hilltop view lots in Clubs Village offers panorama 180+ degree views from over half the lots in this section.
Springs of Cordillera Ranch (new section across FM 3351) is in platting and presales phase. This offering of lots presents a diverse mix of four distinct sections with 3/4-acre lots, 1-acre lots, 2-acre lots and 3-acre lots. The area has a mix of bluff view, creek-front, long view and oak-covered privacy lots. Boerne ISD is planning a future elementary school at the entry to this section.
All of the above three sections have lots that are currently available for contract.
The next section of Nicklaus Signature Golf lots (in Clubs Village) is in the final stage of land planning. With nearly all of the developed golf frontage lots sold out, we are finalizing land plans to begin platting and offering new lots along holes 9 and 10 of the Jack Nicklaus Signature Golf Course. We expect to have these available for purchase in the 1st quarter of 2014.
Learn more about these new development areas at cordilleraranch.com.

Clubs of Cordillera Ranch: Membership / Operations
For the seventh straight year since the Club’s opening, we had a net increase in Club memberships in 2013. Overall there are 615 total members including Ranch and Golf members. Golf rounds are up year-to-date (through November) versus prior year and we expect to finish 2013 with slightly more rounds than the 18,500 we had in 2012, in spite of the fact that we had significantly more rain days this year (thankfully). During the year, a number of capital improvements and upgrades were made at the various clubs facilities, a few notable ones include: new paddock and water lines at the Equestrian Center, purchase of the new Club Mercedes Limo Van and a new 15 passenger van, golf maintenance facility additions, bunker reconstructions, golf practice park and pool furniture refurbishment, resurfaced all tennis courts, new tennis ball machine, and new china and silverware for the food and beverage operations among many others. Additionally, the Club retired all of its bank debt in 2013 which is a major accomplishment considering the economic times. Operating the Club now without any third-party debt provides flexibility, stability and an extra level of comfort to our many members.

Outlook:
While 2013 continued the recovery and turned the gradual upward trend into a steeper rise, the market outlook for 2014 is slightly higher lot sales activity with expected flat home sales activity considering that 2013 was a record year for home sales in the ranch. The area is benefitting from the continued Eagle Ford Shale oil and gas boom as well as health care expansions. In the past 18 months we’re seeing more buyers from out of state than in the prior four years. Many California and even east coast residents are finding Cordillera Ranch as a great option to call home. The combination of excellent schools (Boerne ISD), steady job growth, desirable climate, pro-growth state government, low taxes and unmatched community amenities has us positioned well for a great 2014. Thank you to all of the members and property owners that call Cordillera home and continue to make it one of the most unique communities in the country.

SOURCES:
CALCULATEDRISKBLOG.COM
SABOR/MLS
CR REALTY DATA

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