By Charlie Hill
Buoyed by improving consumer confidence, recovering oil prices and the hope of more business-friendly federal policies, the national housing market gained steam in 2017 and the Cordillera Ranch real estate market followed that same pattern. In the 2nd half of 2016, we saw a surge in home and lot sales in Cordillera Ranch, which continued into 2017. The rallying stock market injected new confidence that helped lead to a third straight year of over $100MM in real estate activity in Cordillera Ranch. With 140 total lot sales, home sales and new home starts totaling $106MM, it was another busy year here on the ranch.
Combined lot and home sales totaled 102 in 2017, up slightly from 101 in 2016. Home sales were down slightly from 50 homes sold in 2016 to 42 in 2017, partly driven by the 52% drop in available inventory in the past couple years. In terms of dollar volume of home sales, with $42MM in home sales, 2017 was the 2nd highest in Cordillera Ranch history behind 2016’s record year of $56MM.
HOME SALES TRENDS
Average home sales price in 2017 was $992k, which was the 2nd highest average price in Cordillera history behind 2016 (average home sales price only includes resale/spec homes, not new custom starts). As the chart below shows, average home price was above 2014 and 2015 figures.
The primary reason for the slight drop in 2017 was the fact that a larger percentage of the sales occurred in the Ranch Community area of Cordillera (which generally covers all of Cordillera outside of Clubs Village, and excludes water front properties). Ranch Community homes have averaged approximately 33% less in sales price over the past three years than other areas in Cordillera, so an increase in the proportion of sales in that area had a slight drag effect on overall home prices. The following chart shows the number of sales and average price by area over the past three years.
The overall average home sales price in areas excluding the Ranch Community was $1.5MM during the past three years, while the average sales price in the Ranch Community was $931k.
Average home price per square foot of resale homes in the Ranch Community was approximately $213/sf compared to $297/sf in Clubs Village during 2017. These average per square foot resale prices were up slightly from $202/sf and $290/sf, respectively, in the prior year. However, relying on average per square foot resale prices can be very misleading, especially when comparing to new construction, because with an average age of 11 years old for the resales in 2017, many of the homes purchased also had additional remodel/update costs on top of the purchase price.
16 of the 42 home sales – for which we had pricing info – were built after 2006 and their average sales price was 45% higher than homes built “pre-Club” time period. It’s not just because the “post-Club” homes average slightly larger in size, the price per square foot was also 33% higher ($264/sf vs. $198/sf) than homes built before the Clubs opened.
Another trend that continued in 2017 was that homes built by Preferred Builders lead the market in best resale value, with their homes averaging 30% higher resale value per square foot than non-Preferred Builders.
CR Realty continues to be the leader in real estate sales in Cordillera Ranch, with over $30MM in real estate transactions during 2017. CR Realty has consistently helped homeowners list and sell homes in Cordillera Ranch and get the best price for their home sales. Because of CR Realty’s unmatched market knowledge, access to the largest list of prospective Cordillera Ranch buyers, and the most sophisticated real estate professionals located in the community, CR Realty listings have sold for an average of 20% higher price per square foot than listings by other real estate agents over the past five years. Contact CR Realty today (830.336.3570) if you want the best listing representation for your property, whether it is a home or lot.
LOT SALES (including developer and resale lots)
Lot sales in the community continued to increase in 2017 with a total of 60 lots sold in the community (up from 51 lot sales in 2016) at an average price of $240k per lot. Again, the average price can be very misleading because lot prices vary widely in various areas of the community. Ranch Community lots had an average sales price of $185k in 2017 while the Clubs Village average price was $330k, as shown in the following chart.
Due to the continued strong lot and home sales activity, inventory in the community has dropped significantly in the past three years, resulting in the tightest market supply we’ve had in Cordillera Ranch. Home inventory is down to the lowest level in over 11 years (since we have tracked inventory levels). A few highlights regarding current inventory levels:
• Historically, available home inventory has ranged from 40-60 homes on MLS at any given time; due to a surge in sales activity in 2016 and 2017, home inventory on MLS is down to 22 homes in mid-January 2018;
• The median home price on MLS is $1.5MM;
• The current home inventory of 22 homes is down from 32 just 9 months ago;
• Only 7 of the 22 homes on the market are under $1MM and only 1 is available for less than $750k;
• Only 3 of the 22 homes on the market are in Clubs Village;
• There is currently only a 6-monthly supply of homes on the market based on 2017 sales pace; this is down from an 8-month supply a year ago;
NEW HOME STARTS
There were 38 new home starts in 2017 and there are currently 39 homes under construction. 13 of the 39 homes under construction are in the Clubs Village with the balance in the Ranch Community. As buyers continue to push for the best quality and reputation in home building, the Preferred Builders continue to lead the way with the majority of the homes under construction. There are 31 homes in design review, signaling another busy year ahead of homebuilding activity.
All of the activity has expedited developing several new expansions to Cordillera Ranch. The premier view lots of Bear’s Ridge are over 85% sold out. We are in the process of releasing the next gated enclave of view home sites, Cordillera Ridge, where the current Visitor Center is located. Perhaps the most sought after spot in the community with 2-4+ acre home sites located conveniently near the Highway 46 entry, these 15 lots have unsurpassed 20-mile views across the Guadalupe River Valley and the Cibolo Creek Valley. These lots, which will be served via the GBRA central water system, are in the platting phase and are currently available for contracting.
We’re also in the platting phase of our final release of golf course frontage estate lots. This section will offer 12 one-plus acre lots from hole 11 to near 12 green, where the extension of Clubs Drive will connect to Cordillera Trace. Additionally, 9 breathtaking estates with stunning views and oaks are also being offered. These lots are currently available for contracting and will be fully developed over the next 9 months.
The Springs is also progressing with continued sales activity. Over 20 lots have been sold and the Garner Homes model is complete and fully staffed. This beautiful home offers a glimpse at Garner’s fine craftsmanship in an open floor plan, which backs up to the greenbelt and trail system that circulates throughout the Springs. Garner is also nearing completion on their first available spec home in the Springs — a 4,000-square-foot, four-beadroom Hill Country Transitional home priced at $839k. With a full complement of the finest components and finishes, this home is situated on a 1 acre tree-covered lot offering privacy and space for great outdoor activities.
Stay tuned for updates on Stadler Custom Homes’ newest creation in the Springs, which is a beautifully designed home scheduled to break ground this spring.
Lastly, after some modifications to the Lodges designs, we’re preparing to get re-started on the first phase, which will comprise two units with a total of 10 rooms. These lodging units will be the perfect place to host your guests for a long weekend as well as for those property owners and members that haven’t yet built their residence in the community. We look forward to completing the first units over the next year.
Thank you to all of the great residents, Club members and staff that make Cordillera Ranch such a truly unique lifestyle. If there are any real estate needs that CR Realty can help you with, please feel free to give us a call at 830.336.3570.